The US state of New England’s current electricity market structure is well suited to maintain power system reliability in winter months until at least 2030, according to a report conducted by Analysis Group Vice President Paul Hibbard and Manager Craig Aubuchon. The report, "Power System Reliability in New England: Meeting Electric Resource Needs in an Era of Growing Dependence on Natural Gas", was conducted to provide an independent assessment of the region’s power system.
The study reviewed system conditions to compare forecasts of the need for gas-fired generation with forecasts of available natural gas supply to estimate potential deficiencies in both "base case" and "stressed system" scenarios.
Under the stressed system modelling the authors found power system reliability deficiencies would emerge by the winter of 2024/2025. They looked at different solutions to meet deficiencies and evaluated impacts on reliability needs, electric ratepayers, and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction obligations. Among these solution sets were dual-fuel and/or liquefied natural gas; additional natural gas pipeline capacity; energy efficiency measures; plus importing hydroelectricity from Canada.
In conclusion the report said a hydropower option was the only approach that would allow the region to meet its 2030 climate goals. The cost of energy efficiency measures plus the importation of hydro from Canada would be US$604M and yield savings of just US$502M, but would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 4.86M tons. In contrast, expanding the region’s natural gas pipeline capacity to meet the potential power shortfall would cost US$66M and yield savings of US$127M, while increasing greenhouse gas emissions by 80,000 tons.
Energy efficiency, demand response, and renewable energy solutions would address system deficiencies and GHG reduction goals, the authors stated.
